Renault calls for flexibility as makers stress over new EU CO2 laws

Renault Group CEO Luca de Meo has called for “flexibility” of emissions targets in the EU from next year, as car makers fret over slower than expected EV growth. The EU has stuck with a CO2-based system that forces car makers to drive down emissions averages, rather than replicate the UK’s zero-emissions vehicle (ZEV) mandate, which adds the need to sell a growing proportion of electric cars. However, next year’s EU requirement for car makers to chop 15% from their 2020 average CO2 figures is forcing Renault to sell almost the equivalent percentage of EVs across the EU as it would do in the UK. “To hit the target, we need to be way above 20%, maybe 22% [or] 23% [EV sales]; that's our estimation,” de Meo told analysts on the French company’s second-quarter earnings call on 29 July. However, the overall EV share across the EU for the first half of the year was 12.5%, with sales especially hurt by Germany’s removal of EV purchase incentives. “The EV market has been surprisingly dynamic in the last few years, but it doesn't match the speed that is required to hit what they are asking us to do,” de Meo said. Renault, along with its partner Nissan (with which it combines sales for emissions calculations purposes), has gone for an EV-plus-hybrid strategy without the help of plug-in hybrids. While hybrids lower the CO2 average, they don’t have the same impact of the two plug-in options, especially EVs. “One EV basically accounts for four ICE cars. EV is key in this calculation,” de Meo said. Renault is crying foul, given its outwardly benign line-up. “If any [manufacturer] that can reach the target, that is us,” de Meo said. "We sell small cars. We are in the top two for hybrid [sales]. So we are calling for a level of flexibility.” Makers of smaller cars face tougher individual targets, as each maker's target is based on a 15% reduction from a specific value calculated from its CO2 emissions for 2020, as well as mass and registration figures from 2021. Overall, car makers have to hit an average of 93.6 g/km of CO2 for cars – which is hard work when a Renault Clio hybrid emits from 95g/km. Premium brands selling heavier, more expensive cars can more easily incorporate PHEV technology, which pushes official CO2 emissions way down. The calculation changes in 2025 to bring the figure more in line with the way PHEVs are actually driven (ie using the engine for longer), but manufacturers like BMW, JLR and Mercedes-Benz are increasing the size of the battery to compensate. “The plug-in hybrids have been very successful,” Mercedes CEO Ola Källenius told analysts on his company’s earnings call last week. Sales jumped 27% to 44,120 in the quarter ending 30 June, putting PHEVs just behind EVs, which dropped 25% to 45,843. However, sluggish EV demand was hurting Mercedes as it went into the crunch year for CO2 reduction in Europe. Källenius warned the company might have to pool with other manufacturers if demand for new models such as next year's electric CLA saloon didn't have enough of an impact. New, cheaper EVs from all manufacturers will be the key to ducking the hefty fine of €95 for every vehicle sold, multiplied by every gram of CO2 above the target. “Every euro spent on penalties is a badly invested euro,” Volkswagen Group CEO Oliver Blume told investors on his company’s earnings call last week. “The main driver of our product offensive will be the new BEVs we are bringing to the market.” Upcoming VW Group EVs include cheaper models like the Skoda Elroq compact SUV. VW already offers a wide range of EVs but is also one of the worst prepared for the 2025 shift as ICE cars continue to dominate its sales. “In our view, only VW really has a problem [in 2025],” Julia Poliscanova, senior director of vehicles and emobility of green pressure group Transport and Environment, told Autocar. The push to sell EVs to meet the target could have a €2bn negative impact on VW Group, the bank UBS predicts. “CO2 compliance could become a meaningful burden,” UBS analyst Patrick Hummel wrote in a note to investors. VW’s advance European order book of 900,000 vehicles is around 8% EVs as it stands, with the company expecting that to grow to 9-10% in the second half of this year. The company is prepared to withhold some sales of EVs at the back end of this year to have them count against 2025’s target, Blume said, but added this will have a “very small, small effect”. Higher EV sales, particularly at the end of the year, will be VW’s strategy, along with its pooling strategy. VW has pooled with SAIC’s MG in past years, but with MG hit the hardest by the EU’s provisional tariffs on Chinese-built EVs, bringing them to almost 50%, all eyes will be on whether those provisional tariffs become permanent in November. Notably, however, Blume didn’t repeat his call from earlier this year to soften the 2025 targets, suggesting the company is more confident of its gameplan. BMW meanwhile isn't worried about 2025. “It will be tougher for everybody to achieve the targets, but we've just been executing our preliminary plans for 2025, and that shows that we will also reach that target,” said CEO Oliver Zipse said on its earnings call. Zipse however repeated his attack on the EU’s 2035 zero-emissions target, after which new ICE cars can be sold only if they're capable of running on carbon-neutral e-fuels. The apparent rejection of EVs from retail buyers this year shouldn’t be any cause for concern, argued Poliscanova. “Our view remains that in Europe, EV sales were always going to stagnate in 2024 - apart from the UK - and will pick up in 2025,” she said. Poliscanova pointed out that nearly all mass-market car makers are planning sub-€25,000 EV models, which will help persuade private buyers to switch to electric and so help them comply with tougher targets from next year. “So in our view, flexibility with the regulation will not be necessary,” she said.