Back in 2015, a few weeks before the Volkswagen Dieselgate scandal and seven months before Britain’s momentous decision to leave the EU, the UK’s motor industry society, the SMMT, voiced an exceptionally bold claim about the future growth of car manufacturing. This history-changing forecast was rapturously received a few weeks later by a confident, 1200-strong audience of industry luminaries at the society’s lavish annual dinner in London’s Park Lane.
The nub of the prediction was that by the end of 2015, British car production would have scored its sixth straight increase – another 15% this time – to top 1.7 million cars. At this unprecedented expansion rate, which back then experts were confident would continue, UK car production would set a new record of two million cars a year for 2016. All seemed right with the car makers’ world.
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I'd add to Dave Greenwood's thoughts that support for moving from validated innovation to production is poor, especially in cutting edge areas that need very high manufacturing investment.
Re manufacturing in the UK, the topic that is hardly ever mentioned is rules of origin. I believe that's a fundamental factor in BritishVolt having no customers (although having no near-production technology doesn't help).
How can this article refer to the need for gigafactories, but then completely gloss over the fact that Britishvolt is in such a desperate state that the staff have had to go on 50% pay cut and borrow £6million, on top of the staff pay cuts, to get through five weeks. This is a "supposed" £3.8 billion investment, much heralded here, when it is nothing of the sort. The major backers have only put up low tens of millions, and Britishvolt have attempted to dip into the £100million grant from UK PLC which only becomes available once certain milestones are passed.
And now, as of yesterday, one of Britishvolt's creditors has appointed receivers. And Britishvolt have been in court with financial advisers Evans Randall over an upaid £10million bill. They came to a settlement. The background to this is unclear but it seems that they had been looking for new owners going back more than one year.
Great that Warwick Manufacturing helped them save a year on cell material development, but that's no use to anyone if the basics can't get out of the ground and production is delayed year-on-year.
As to output, following the 2008 crash, and year-on-year strong growth 2016 was the peak. That's it. You can point at Covid. Lack of semiconductors. You can point at Ukraine. You can see the effects of these in the production figures, it's clear, but the bounceback is always on trend. The trend is down. It'll bottom out, one hopes, but where? Regardless, once bottomed out it won't go up anything like it did post 2008, and certainly will never get anywhere close to 1.7 million units. Never. And you know why. But like the government, the opposition, you couch and hedge. Just be honest.