Analysis: Why the British bus industry is on the up

At the same time, the government announced that it would publish a national bus strategy by the end of the year. This was keenly anticipated by manufacturers, but 2020 came and went with no sign of it.

A spokesman for the Department for Transport told Autocar: “The strategy was delayed as a result of Covid but should be published shortly.”

Some in the industry fear that it and the £5bn pledge have been sidelined by events.

“It’s almost a year since Boris Johnson made his commitment to help fund 4000 zero-carbon buses, but we’ve yet to see a tangible plan for achieving it,” Paul Davies, the president and managing director of ADL, told Autocar.

Andy Palmer, until recently the boss of Aston Martin and since July the non-executive chairman of Leeds-based bus maker Switch Mobility, is equally concerned. “The lack of any clear commitment is deeply frustrating,” he said. “We’re just waiting, which isn’t good for the industry.”

Palmer’s frustration is made more acute, because his company actually posted a 12% rise in registrations in 2020, selling 64 buses compared with 57 the year before.

Crucially, the majority were registrations of electric buses, up 73%. Switch Mobility’s success with electric buses (it made its first 10 years ago but really got behind the technology in 2015) was why it recently changed its name from Optare to Switch Mobility.

“The change in name signals our commitment to battery-electric powertrains,” explained Palmer. “From now on, every new bus we build and design here in Leeds will be battery-electric, using UK- and European-sourced components.”

Electrification is the quickest way to clean up the air in towns and cities, believes Palmer. “It’s why, if the government is serious about achieving [net] zero emissions, it has to deliver a national bus strategy,” he said. “With the climate change conference coming in 2026, it must show clear leadership.”

Switch Mobility may have nailed its colours to the BEV mast, but ADL is hedging its bets with a commitment to it as well as to hydrogen, biogas, hybrid and diesel buses.

Its decision to bring design and assembly of chassis for its electric buses in-house from BYD in China should ensure that it qualifies for some of the government’s promised £120m purchase subsidy.

It’s planning to increase its BEV buses’ share of production output from 20% to 40%. At the same time, it has recently unveiled a new hydrogen bus while its diesel-electric hybrid offering provides up to five miles of electric-only range.

“We believe battery-electric will be the dominant solution at least in the short-term, but it’s horses for courses, which is why we offer a range of powertrains,” said Davies.

“However, the industry needs the government’s help, not only in terms of subsidies, which we can’t just rely on, but also in giving people the confidence to return to buses.”

However, Bamford is clear in his view that, rather than BEVs, the buses those people return to must be hydrogen-powered. Before his takeover, Wrightbus was facing an uncertain future, with no electric-only bus in its range. Now it has launched its first hydrogen fuel-cell double-decker, with a single-decker to follow later in the year.

Bamford is a hydrogen advocate who, with a separate business called Ryse Hydrogen that provides storage, pumping infrastructure and finance for the fuel, plus another that produces it using renewable energy generated by an offshore windfarm, believes hydrogen’s time has come.

“The UK is too late to battery production but, with our climate, we can lead the way with hydrogen,” said Bamford. “The fuel is much better suited to buses operating beyond city centres and although, like battery-electric buses, hydrogen fuel cell buses are around twice as expensive as diesel ones, if someone were to place an order for 3000 of them [around 10% of the UK’s bus fleet], we would get our price down to diesel bus levels.”

You wait for one dirty old diesel bus and then a fleet of super-clean electrified ones arrive all at once. Now all they need is the government, passengers, operators and councils to get on board...

Taxi maker also positive despite impact of pandemic

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