Analysis: UK’s ICE ban to have global impact

The Czech Republic isn’t alone in having to alter its automotive manufacturing strategy. South Africa produces no BEVs at all, and its only hybrid is the Mercedes-Benz C-Class, although Toyota is set to start producing a new hybrid model there this year.

The country exported 101,401 vehicles to the UK in 2019, despite the logistical costs associated with it being so far away. These included major sellers such as the BMW X3 and Volkswagen Polo, plus popular pick-ups including the Ford Ranger and Toyota Hilux.

BMW says that it’s currently trying to resolve a technical issue at its X3 plant there in order to produce a PHEV version of the SUV, but with manufacturing of the electric iX3 taking place in China, it seems unlikely that BMW will produce that in South Africa, potentially removing the UK from its list of export destinations in the long term.

BMW is moving to multiple-drivetrain production at many of its plants. Its head of global production, Milan Nedeljkovic, told Autocar: “We’re capable of producing both vehicles with combustion engines and electric drivetrains on a single line and responding flexibly to customer requests.”

He described this as a crucial success factor as the company moves forward with its electrification strategy that includes half of the 25 electrified models it will offer by 2023 being fully electric, including the new iX SUV and i4 saloon that are due this year.

However, BMW told us that it would prefer to see incentives for a move to EVs, rather than the banning of what it calls “certain types of technology”.

Volkswagen has already switched its 116-year-old Zwickau factory in Germany to producing EVs, and over the next few years, the Volkswagen Group will have 35 plants producing EVs on its MEB platform. However, that won’t be the case for its site in South Africa, which exported more than 36,000 Polos to the UK in 2019.

Volkswagen told us that manufacturing a BEV version of the Polo for the UK and other markets would be very difficult, because it simply wouldn’t make any money. Instead, the firm said it will only produce ICE Polos for markets that will take them, such as Africa.

That may still be a successful outcome for Volkswagen, because, according African Association of Automotive Manufacturers boss David Coffey, sales of new vehicles on the continent could increase from the current 1.1 million per year to more than 5 million by 2035, and most of these will still be ICE models.

Flexibility to meet the demands of the UK and other world markets is key at Mercedes-Benz, which produces the UK-bound Mercedes-Benz C-Class at its plant in East London, South Africa.

The company plans to have six BEV models on sale by 2022, including the EQS luxury saloon that will be launched this year. That will be built at its new Factory 56 plant in Sindelfingen, Germany, which acts as a blueprint for other Mercedes operations around the world and is capable of producing the full range of powertrains on the same lines. The factory in South Africa will require significant investment to adopt this new blueprint, however.

“The Mercedes-Benz production network is global, digital and flexible, and ready for the upcoming electric offensive,” said Jörg Burzer, member of the board of management of Mercedes-Benz for production and supply chain. “Six electric product launches by 2022 underscore the strength and competence of our Mercedes-Benz production sites worldwide.”

Ford will bring its first BEV model, the Mustang Mach-E SUV, to the UK this year, but it’s another manufacturer that will have to alter its strategy, and this could have implications for which models we can actually buy here.