Inside the industry: Tailpipe emissions will be a thing of the past before too long

What's the best way to lower emissions from cars? To sell more cars. How so? The logic is simple.

The UK has a car parc of around 38 million; about two million new cars pour into the funnel each year; some eight million used cars change hands; and around 1.5 million cars are scrapped, at an average age of about 14.

In terms of tailpipe emissions, that funnel makes the argument simple enough to understand. Such is the rate of progress from the industry that new cars are significantly less polluting than 14-year-old ones, while the used car shuffling ensures there’s always a conveyor belt running through the parc.

But is the equation that justifies this turnaround going to change with the onset of electrification? What if the best way to lower emissions is to sell fewer cars?

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It’s a wild theory, not least because battery tech is always advancing. But is it possible that legislators might want to extend those timelines, given the differences between an ICE and a battery and thus the green gains from keeping EVs on the road for longer?

Many will dismiss this possibility, highlighting that constant evolution of the parc improves far more than just tailpipe emissions, from safety and tech advances to keeping fashion-conscious drivers happy. But in the face of maintaining personal mobility amid a climate-change emergency, it could well happen.

Key to any considerations would be the emissions from making an EV. Looking only at CO2 and acknowledging that estimates vary, today around six tonnes are emitted for every petrol car manufactured – about 25% of its lifetime total after being driven from the forecourt to the scrapyard. On that basis, progress in lowering tailpipe emissions has just about justified the 14-year cycle of change.

In contrast, making an EV produces nine tonnes, but that’s 46% of its lifetime total, with the overall output estimated on average to be around 20% better than for an ICE car – a gap that will, of course, be widened with technological focus and investment, and which could be rapidly advanced if the car is run for longer.

Here the fun starts, partly because we’re still finding out how durable batteries are. They are typically sold with a seven-year, 100,000-mile warranty and expected to go on after that and have long second-life uses, as well as being highly recyclable. Add in the fact EVs have few running parts and maybe it will be the right thing to do environmentally to replace the battery, not the car.

It runs counter to every instinct forged in an era of consumerism; but in one led by net-zero targets, perhaps we have to think differently.