Autocar's manifesto: Why Government must rethink the 2035 combustion ban

Our contention is that:

 A ban on volume-produced ICE-only cars and vans is right in nearly all cases, but there must be exclusions to protect our unique specialist and low-volume car industries.

 However, the ban shouldn’t extend to plug-in hybrids – at least until pure EVs prove their suitability for all current car and van users – because they will remain essential for long-range drivers.

 The authorities should set standards, not enforce specific solutions in a case like this.

 Despite Brexit, all limitations must be introduced in close co-operation with nearby large car markets (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) to allow vital economies of scale.

 Any ban should be introduced no sooner than 2038 – three full car model generations ahead.

 A government minister with special responsibility in these important areas should be either appointed or deployed forthwith.

It’s well known that car companies need to plan models and production facilities two decades ahead and to commit to new models 12-15 years out. To allow them only 12 years for an almost total revision of planning and technology seems certain to cause both serious industrial upheaval and a late-2020s-onwards collapse in new car sales in favour of raging demand for nearly new ICE and hybrid vehicles. The ban must be sensitively ‘sold’ and implemented to avoid threatened market upheaval, and once made, decisions must be adhered to.

Arguably, 2032-35 also provides insufficient time to win over a public still sceptical about electric vehicles – largely following governmental failure to expand or organise EV charging infrastructure.

Expecting a market that currently buys 2.5% electric cars to move to 100% in a dozen years while easier options continue to be available strikes us as unrealistic. Especially when existing EV incentives penalise hybrids, which more imaginative eyes might see as contributing powerfully to lowered pollution levels now while serving as useful stepping stones to full-EV adoption.

Autocar’s great concern is that companies will be driven into deep unprofitability, an extremely undesirable situation when manufacturers – and their key suppliers – must be enthusiastically encouraged to stay in the UK (providing jobs) while investing in new models, processes and suppliers with unprecedented speed.

Our proposal

Our proposal for the years ahead would run like this:

 Decide on a 2038 ICE-only ban for all but low-volume manufacturers and make it stick so that car makers can, for the next 18 years, depend on it for planning purposes.

 Heavily incentivise EV ownership, in the style of Norway, as a way of dramatically boosting demand.

 Reverse current policy so as to encourage the development and use of petrol-assisted plug-in hybrids, which will be vital both for long-range drivers and to provide others with a palatable step into full EVs, as well as making a major contribution to lowering pollution levels now.

 Fulfil legislators’ frequent promises to expand and improve EV charging infrastructure by organising the commercial aspects of the coverage, rather than allowing a market free-for-all.

 Take special control of motorway EV charging – probably the biggest priority for an EV future.

 Ruthlessly deter the use of old and high-polluting petrol and diesel cars and vans everywhere, but…

 Avoid pejorative curbs of Euro 4-onwards petrol and Euro 6-onwards diesel cars, so as to give lower-income motorists hope of maintaining affordable mobility in comparatively clean cars.

 Ensure that local council rules applying to car use are uniform so that owners can travel freely to new places without risking unknown infringements based on vehicle type.

 Drastically improve growth incentives for the hydrogen industry to provide clean propulsion for the British trucks and buses that remain major polluters and will need this technology in future.

 Drastically improve the tone and quality of political rhetoric so the car industry once again believes its value to the UK’s economy is understood. ‘Sell’ the new system to the public, giving car owners plenty of time to understand and get used to it.

 Protect our unique small-series-car industry and motorsport industry, which are major contributors to employment and export. Companies will need continuing freedom to manufacture and test cars for markets without bans.

 Avoid knee-jerk curbs on classic car ownership, thereby supporting an industry that generates many jobs and big money yet, because of owners’ low mileages, creates negligible measurable pollution.

Our conclusion

Naturally, there’s even more to do. No ban should appear until there has been a thorough and impartial assessment of the oil industry’s recent, game-changing plan to introduce low-carbon fuels in two stages. Perhaps as a result, the ICE ban can be introduced more slowly to do even less harm to the UK automotive industry.

Two last things: we must consider the capability of the power grid to cope with the coming exponential demand for car power and must take much more care about the sourcing and recycling of EV batteries.