BTCC 2016: Brands Hatch season finale predictions

Tough for Tordoff

Since the NGTC rules began ruling the roost in 2012, the BMW 125i M Sport, the car that will carry the hopes of Tordoff and Collard, has not won at the extended version of the Kent venue: indeed, it is the only circuit on the current BTCC calendar where drivers of the rear-wheel-drive German cars haven’t scaled the top step of the podium since it was introduced in 2012.

Not only that, Tordoff will go in to the opening race carrying 75kg of success ballast. That won’t be as much of a handicap on the Brands GP loop as it has been at other tracks but it will still have an effect.

There are the extra points to look out for too. The bonus offerings for leading a lap, securing pole and setting fastest laps could have a strong impact. 

If Shedden wins the opening race from pole and sets fastest lap, that would mean he and Tordoff go into race two with only five points separating the pair... 

There is a curve ball in terms of the softer option tyres, but the leading drivers have all successfully cancelled each other out by opting for them in race two.

Honda’s gameplan

So while Tordoff will be the hunted, the Honda duo of Shedden and Neal are hunters – and both are pretty good at that.

They will have less weight than Tordoff going in to qualifying – 66kg for Shedden and 57kg for Neal – and both have been winners at Brands. There are two other crucial factors that means smart money could be behind the orange machines.

Both have been in the title showdown before. Shedden has been in the reckoning five times during his BTCC career and claimed the title twice (2012 and 2015). Old hand Neal has been in the climax eight times, and prevailed three times.

But there is more to it than that: they will be looking out for Honda’s best interests and will work together to make sure that one of them is in position to collect the title going into the final race.

The pair even started talking about a game plan during the last meeting at Silverstone, but topsy-turvy race results meant that they didn’t put it into practice. After race one at Brands, they will. 

That means race one will be vital on a personal basis for the Honda drivers: whoever has the upper hand after the opener could have one hand on the crown.

The chasers

Collard will also be out to help Tordoff, but only when the occasion demands it. The Hampshireman, who turns 48 on Saturday, has had an Indian summer to his career with two wins this year but he has also picked up a qualifying bogey this year. 

His average starting position (from timed qualifying) is 17th. You read that right: he has only started in the top six once, and that was at Donington Park in April. 

It is only some swashbuckling drives that have helped him claw back ground but that could be a step too far at Brands – a circuit that hasn’t necessarily been good to him in the past.

Mat Jackson, on the other hand, has had recent triumphs on the 2.4-mile GP track at Brands with a brace last season in the EcoBoost-powered Motorbase Ford Focus. 

He is carrying 39kg to Brands this season though and, while he will be hungry for a maiden title, the odds against him are long.