Cars in 2021: What will happen – and what you should do

Here’s what we think will happen in 2021, along with some things you should do (you-know-what permitting…) First up: our predictions.

We don’t hand out five-star scores for first drives often, but the Toyota GR Yaris is fully deserving of every word of praise heaped upon it. And we’re sure the expectations of its arrival was a metaphorical shot in the arm late in the tyre fire that was 2020 and was upstaged only by the literal shot in the arm promised by the impending arrival of Covid-19 vaccines.

The many eager buyers who have already reserved one will be fully met when they take delivery next year. Which is pretty remarkable, really. Who could have anticipated such excitement from a car carrying the Yaris nameplate?

The Yaris is largely a straight, sensible hybrid hatchback. With the car world shifting its focus to electrified models and practical mobility solutions, it’s almost surreal that Toyota has lavished resources on a rally-derived, petrol-engined hot hatch.

Actually, some of the joy of the GR Yaris is that it has come from such a humble place. Toyota is a mass-market manufacturer and our belief – with a little bit of hope – is that Toyota’s efforts will pay off and the GR Yaris will be a huge hit that can join the likes of the Honda Civic Type R and Volkswagen Golf R as high-performance mass-market masterpieces. Ford’s decision not to develop a new Focus RS raised concerns about the prospects of the top-end hot hatch (although the Focus ST is spectacular). The GR Yaris will hopefully prove that the future is still bright.

Industry giant turned corporate fugitive Carlos Ghosn recently said that the impact of the pandemic will accelerate industry consolidation through 2021 (and beyond). He’s probably right. As the need to cut costs becomes ever more acute, we could see more high-profile mergers such as FCA’s and PSA’s Stellantis.

However, we reckon car ranges will shrink further, too, as the cost and complexity of vast numbers of engines and trim levels bite. Diesel’s decreasing demand has already caused many models to go petrol only and the need to cut fleet CO2 emissions will also result in some thirst y engine options falling by the wayside. At least we’ll see a glut of new electric vehicles.

Mitsubishi’s decision to withdraw from Europe was shocking but there was nothing illogical about it. Car makers are under huge financial pressure. Europe, meanwhile, is setting the most demanding emission standards in the world, and the UK is adding complexity, and cost, as a result of Brexit. So operating on the fringes of the UK market is less enticing than ever.

As moonshots go, this prediction is right out there, but as this discombobulating year has worn on, it has become evident that the Fiesta’s position as Britain’s best-selling car – a crown it has worn since 2009 – is coming under increasing pressure, from the Vauxhall Corsa and Volkswagen Golf but also from within its own ranks in the form of the Focus and Puma.

Yes, of course, little has been normal over the past nine months or so, but there’s no reason to think 2021 will be hugely different, vaccine or otherwise. New CEO Jim Farley is determined to focus the company on making vehicles it can sell for decent profits, which is why the company has basically stopped selling ‘cars’ (as opposed to SUVs and pickups) in the US.

So it might happily gives up the bragging rights associated with the top sales spot in exchange for allowing some sales to be cannibalised by the higher margin Focus and Puma (pictured).

Enough to make another Ford the brand’s best-seller? Possibly. If you like a flutter, you’d put your money on the Focus, but it has been notable in recent months how rapidly the Puma, beloved of revenge buyers splashing some cash or downsizers saving some, has been coming up on the rails.

The manual gearbox is all but incompatible with the instant torque produced by a pure EV. Thus, its extinction is inevitable. But not just yet: Kia’s new ‘clutchby-wire’ transmission is designed especially to work with 48V mild-hybrid systems – usually paired with auto ’boxes for optimum efficiency.

It allows cheap, small cars to benefit from the same fuel-saving electric tech as their larger counterparts, with the added benefit of being more engaging to operate. The Ford Puma MHEV also has a manual option. So while Mercedes-Benz is on track to go auto only by 2030, we could see a manual resurgence before other firms follow suit.

It started a while ago: when a company such as Ferrari stopped offering manual gearboxes, the writing was on the wall. But we never thought we’d be here this quickly. As our colleague Andrew Frankel pointed out recently, the only way to buy a manual V8 now is to get a Ford Mustang (pictured). With more EVs arriving, the stick shifter is only going one way. So buy one, embrace it… and look after it well for the next generations.

With more off-the-line thrust than a rollercoaster in cars like the Porsche Taycan Turbo S (pictured), some EVs create the equivalent force of an emergency stop, only in reverse, every time you bury the throttle. Given the questionable driving ability of many road users, can making such performance available to a wider audience ever end well?

Hopefully, in 2021, manufacturers will see sense and dial things back to more sensible levels. EVs can still be fun off the line without the need for a neck brace.

Bentley is the most recent car company to announce a date when it is planning to switch to electric only sales, but it’s far from alone: Volvo, Volkswagen (VW ID3 pictured) and others are all committed to ditching combustion engines. And more will surely follow: we expect 2021 to bring a wave of companies confirming dates when they’ll go EV only.

Clearly, there’s motivation to do so with ever-tougher emissions regulations and countries including Norway, France, Germany and now the UK all setting dates to ban the sale of non-zero-emission new cars. And consider that car firms like to lead: expect more to jump to EVs before they’re finally pushed.

For a while now, the industry’s own charts have predicted that EVs will take a 10% market share in or just after 2022. Some will argue that was always pessimistic, but few will disagree that the events of 2020 have, erm, supercharged expectations – first via a global pandemic raising environmental awareness, and second via a national commitment to sell only new EVs from 2030, not 2040 as originally planned.

Getting there early will require continued exponential growth, but who would bet against that as awareness sky-rockets and more, bet ter EVs are launched?

Meanwhile, Brexit is a potential boost to this goal, if it comes to pass that UK car sellers must hit EU-mandated emissions averages on UK registrations alone. In fact , the only major risk is that countries with more generous subsidy schemes have  already hoovered up supply allocations.

You have only to watch recent history to see the truth of this. There are 20,000 charging points in the UK, a number that ’s expanding at around 30% a year. Keep doing what you’re doing, and after five years you’ll have 75,000. Do it for five more (to the 2030 date everyone regards as critical even though more than half the cars on UK roads will still burn fossil fuel) and you’ll have erected 275,000 charging points, close to the number the experts say will be needed, with no acceleration of the build rate.

Except it will accelerate. And as the number of charging points increases dramatically, there will be handy improvements in battery energy density. Those who can will continue charging cars at home, but those who can’t will find their perceived drawback reduces in importance as batteries improve and remote /charging gets quicker. The toughest time for electric car ownership is now. It’s going to get a lot easier.

Charging point rage is already with us, occurring often between BEV owners who must have charge to proceed but are impeded by PHEV owners for whom it’s less important. Nothing quite is as infuriating as waiting for an occupier staying longer than they need. But even that problem is temporary. BEVs will soon predominate, charging points will become more ubiquitous and there will be space for all.

History is littered with scintillating rivalries. In 2020, the gaming world’s equivalent of Schumacher versus Hakkinen got lively with the release of the Sony PlayStation 5 and Microsoft’s Xbox Series X.

Ultra-realism from their 4K graphics, quicker refresh rate and lightning-fast load times are just some of the major upgrades. Those quicker refresh rates will be a bonus for fast-paced racing games. Highlights include Dirt5, WRC 9, the much-hyped Gran Turismo 7 and arch-rival Forza.

The Microsoft and Sony systems both have their strengths and weaknesses, of course. Technically, the Microsoft machine is more powerful and gives access to the good value Xbox Game Pass, the Netflix of the gaming world, but the PlayStation has the more immersive controller with the next-gen of haptic feedback.For once, built-in obsolescence isn’t part of the deal. All your carefully curated games from the previous-gen consoles will play on certain versions of the new ones.

Any 2021 lockdowns just got easier to bear.

So that’s our predictions – what about the things we think you should do? Read on:

Mud on your lovely paintwork. Grime covering up your shiny alloy wheels. Empty bottles in your car door pockets. Paperwork practically bursting out of the glovebox.

Unknown items rolling around in the rear footwells. Paraphernalia in the boot… Cars tend to accumulate dirt and rubbish through daily usage, and it can be a faff to take the time to stop and clean up. But it’s so worth it. A clean car is a source of pride, and much nicer to spend time in. Plus, on a quiet weekend afternoon, cleaning your car is really satisfying. Go on, you won’t regret it.

Those of you with an electric car plugged in outside your house, or already plotting where you might put a home charger, can skip to the next slide. This is a suggestion for those of you uncertain, confused, wary or perhaps even opposed to EVs: it’s time to try one. With the UK government having announced a ban on the sale of most new non-zero-emission cars in just nine years, it’s a good time to sample the future if you haven’t already.

After all, there is a lot of uncertainty about electric cars, and there are concerns about performance, driving feel and, of course, range. But we reckon many of those concerns will fade once you’ve experienced the quiet, effortless pleasure of electric propulsion. And you might be surprised by how usable EVs are in most situations.

Of course, they won’t be for everyone just yet, so we’re not suggesting each person goes out and buys one. With the current limitations, they might not work for you right now – and we continue to argue that different powertrain solutions suit different drivers.

Frankly, there’s plenty of infrastructure work to be done before the UK is ready for the mass adoption of EVs. But electric cars themselves have come a long way in recent years. So if you’re still unsure about them, why not find out for yourself?

Nothing builds on-road confidence better than honing your driving skills on a track, where a car’s full capabilities (often greater than you may have realised) can be revealed. The UK has many great performance driving venues – the standout being PalmerSport’s elaborate offerings at the dedicated Bedford Autodrome.

It’s no longer the cheapest pursuit, especially if, as at PalmerSport, you’re encouraged to drive sophisticated machinery to its very limit, but the rewards are huge pleasure and new skills that might just save your life.

One of the positive by-products of Covid-19 has been the rise of the drive-in movie as a way of getting out and about yet maintaining our all important infection-free bubbles. And quite a few of us are learning (or, if old enough, relearning) the joy of ‘going to the drive-in’.

The UK was never as big on this form of movie watching as were the North Americans (who often combined it with their hot-rodding culture to make a kind of car show with entertainment). It’s likely that our weather was against us: no fun to leave a window half open in horizontal rain so an old-tech wired speaker can be clamped to it.

Now, technology has made life a lot better. You buy tickets online, avoiding the need to car-queue and having scanned the weather forecast before making the commitment. Audio can now be piped through your car’s own hi-fi. And better screens and projectors make it possible for movies to be successfully screened in daylight.

There’s no better place to practise those new-found skills than in a hill climb, sprint, night rally or production car trial , but don’t let ‘ low key’ seduce you into thinking competition won’t be keen. The Motorsport UK website is full of good advice about codes, licences, race gear (or lack of it) and the rest.

It’s official: piston engines are not just going out of fashion but selling new ones will be banned in nine years’ time as well. Fear not, though, because there is always the used car market to get your fix.

Among big-block petrol engines, V12s are the extreme and often attached to a Ferrari or Aston, but there are better-value Jaguar and BMW V12 cars to enjoy, often with extra family-friendly seating. The V8 is around in even more affordable numbers: the Vauxhall Monaro, loads of Mercedes and maybe a retired wedding hire Bentley or Roller, to name a few. There’s a raft of ginormous diesels, too. Try a V10 VW Touareg, or maybe a V8 Toyota Land Cruiser (pictured). Hurry while stocks last…

We’ll stop short of advising you to attempt a battery pack upgrade for your Tesla Model 3, but if 2020 has taught us anything, it’s that greatness can still be achieved at home. Avoid shelling out unnecessarily large sums for simple car jobs by picking up a new DIY skill. Oil changes, for example, are strangely satisfying (if infuriatingly messy), brake pads can be changed in a matter of minutes and even dent repairs aren’t impossible if you get handy with the filler and rattle can.

Learning to weld could save the average classic car owner an absolute boat load of cash, but accumulating all the kit is a significant out lay in itself.

Touchscreens in cars are getting bigger. They’re getting more feature laden. They’re getting more complicated. And with all that, they’re getting ever more dangerous. It’s simply not safe to try to navigate your way around many touchscreens on the move. They have become portals not only to classic ‘infotainment’ features but also now key functions for controlling some elements of the car, and increasingly the heating and ventilation, too.

Try using some of these essential features when you’re driving. Eyes off the road to find the right menu and press. Eyes off again once in the menu to select. Eyes off perhaps a third time to slide your finger to increase the temperature. Eyes off a fourth time even to check the system has done what you wanted. Back left your glance may then have to go again if it hasn’t. Repeat a couple of minutes later when you realise you’ve turned the temperature up too much.

Perhaps voice control is the answer. No system is really there yet, though. But someone already has come up with a better way of controlling what’s on a screen: it’s called buttons. Or, even better, a little rotating wheel and a few key shortcut buttons you can locate by touch and muscle memory to guide your way around these complex systems, with your eyes hardly having to leave the road, if at all.

Thankfully, some car makers still persist with this way, but they are few and far between. More should. Bring back the buttons and dials, we say.

What about the cars we’re most looking forward to in 2021? Read on

Any year that includes the introduction of one of these is highly likely to be made vastly better by its presence. And, with that wing, what presence it’ll have. It gets a smidge more powe, a lot more downforce and firmer springing. We can’t wait.

The idea of BMW doing a cheaper, simpler, more accessibly engaging hot hatchback is a really appealing one – and our first drive in a prototype suggested the reality should be, too.

It isn’t the 2000-horsepower output that attracts nearly as much as the motor-per-corner, fully independent torque vectoring tuned by top dynamics experts. It should finally show the kind of handling engagement that EVs are capable of.

Aston’s Adrian Newey-designed hypercar should be finished in 2021 and somebody from this parish will test it. Just seeing and hearing it run in anger is exciting enough. Another McLaren F1 moment?

Always a contender for ‘best car in the world’ billing, and described by Mercedes as the most technically advanced car it has built. Level three autonomous driving, even greater refinement and V12 options if you want them. The mind boggles.

And what are three of us looking forward to most?

The Porsche Taycan (pictured) comes closest because it’s quite sporting in nature, very impressive and capable, but that’s not quite the same thing. I want an electric car you’d drive purely for the hell of it and I hope that happens in 2021. Do I think it will? Sadly not. ANDREW FRANKEL

Don’t give me motorways or suburban arteries: what I really want are rolling English (or Scottish, Welsh and Irish) roads unfolding ahead of my car as I drive. Preferably with the usually beautiful scenery of the UK steadily being revealed on either side. Don’t much care what I ’m driving, just as long as it’s enjoyable. STEVE CROPLEY

Some aspects of shows now look expensive and pointless. But the way they bring together the industry and those running it, to be interviewed, and share stories, to inform news pages and our stories for months to come, has been missed. When they come back, as they will in some form, and likely this year, this is one element I can’t wait for. MARK TISSHAW