Car makers extend life of combustion engines amid EV hangover

The spike in Tesla’s share prices in 2021 – eventually valuing the electric car maker past one trillion dollars – triggered an unprecedented wave of optimism towards EVs among the boardrooms of global car companies. With the financial markets rewarding bold strategies that involved an early exit from combustion engines, car companies were happy to set bold targets. Brands including Bentley, Cadillac, Ford, Lexus, Mercedes-Benz, Vauxhall and Volvo all laid out plans to go electric-only within the decade, either globally or within the more promising-looking markets, such as Europe. Perhaps predictably, the sugar highs of the post-Covid EV stock market have now crashed back, as stakeholders are faced with the reality that EV sales growth is proving far lumpier than dreamed in those heady days. No brand can afford to take the foot off the accelerator when it comes to EV development, however. As it currently stands, the ZEV mandate targets in the UK require an EV sales mix of 80% by 2030, while the EU requires a 55% drop in average CO2 from 2021 levels. As more companies row back on original promises while making sure they don't fall fall of the regulations, we take a look at where the major players stand now. Brands whose plans have slipped Ford Ford committed in June 2021 to go all-EV in Europe by 2030 following the announcement that it would invest $1 billion in its Cologne plant, which has now begun production of the Explorer electric SUV. This year, however, Ford said it wasn’t beholden to the date and would be open to selling hybrids past 2030. “If we see strong demand for instance for plug-in hybrid vehicles, we are going to offer them,” then Ford of Europe boss Martin Sander said in July. Volvo Volvo promised in 2021 it would shift to all EVs globally by 2030, with half of all sales moving to EV by 2025. The Geely-owned company is proving better placed then most to make the shift, but earlier this month CEO Jim Rowan admitted that the 2030 might be more like 90%. “It is clear that the transition to electrification will not be linear,” he said. Bentley Bentley was one of the first to commit to an all-EV future after 2030 back in 2020, but the Volkswagen Group brand has suffered setbacks in the launch of its first EV, now scheduled for deliveries in late 2026. Earlier this year, it backed away from its 2030 target, promising instead to focus on plug-in hybrids as a bridge to EVs. Mercedes-Benz Mercedes was another to announce ambitious plans in 2021 to go all-EV by 2030 “where market conditions allowed”. The German giant also promised 50% sales of plug-in hybrid and EV by 2025. Both goals have been dialled back after sales failed to match original forecasts. It now plans to sell combustion-engined cars “well into the 2030s”, CEO Ola Källenius said in February. Cadillac Cadillac announced in 2022 that it planned to shift to all-EV sales by 2030. That has since been throttled back, and the General Motors brand will now take its cue from customers, global head John Roth said in May. Brands sticking to their plans Stellantis Stellantis has so far stuck to its 2021 plan to go all-EV in Europe by 2030 across all of its brands, with no new combustion-engined models planned for launch after that date. Vauxhall’s EV-only target is even tighter, at 2028, and it has promised that after it launches the Frontera and Grandland hybrids this year, every following launch will be electric-only. Alfa Romeo, DS and Fiat have the toughest timetable within Stellantis, planning to go all-EV by 2027. Rolls-Royce Rolls-Royce was another to commit to all-EV by 2030 and last year beat its luxury rivals to the punch with the launch of the Spectre EV. The BMW Group brand earlier this year recommitted to its 2030 target. Nissan Nissan’s 2021 commitment to go all-EV in Europe by 2030 is looking shaky, given its low EV sales share currently, but the Japanese brand said earlier this year that it remains a target. The shorter-term goal is 43% EV by 2026. Lexus Toyota-owned Lexus hasn't said that it will deviate from its 2021 promise to go all-EV in China, Europe and the US by 2030, with global sales following by 2035. More relaxed plans Volkswagen Volkswagen's plan for 2030, announced in 2021, was for EVs to “exceed” 70% of sales in Europe, with the US and China hitting 50%. Despite recent setbacks, including cancellation of an electric compact SUV due to be built at Wolfsburg and the delay of the Trinity flagship EV project, the target is achievable. Audi Audi’s plan to go all-EV in 2033 globally is far enough away to be achievable, and the VW Group brand hasn't pushed back on it. The last combustion-engined Audi models will be launched in 2026, CEO Gert Döllner reiterated in March. Porsche Porsche promised in 2022 that “more than” 80% of its cars sold by 2030 will be electric, giving the VW Group brand space to continue selling combustion-engined 911s even as its SUVs and saloons shift to EV. Toyota Toyota’s 2021 goal of zero-emission sales in Europe by 2035 exactly matches the ambition of the EU, meaning there’s little movement for leeway here. However, its plan to produce 1.5 million EVs globally in 2026 has been dialled back to 1m, according to recent reports in the Japanese press. JLR JLR has one of the most relaxed electric timetables, with a goal to hit 60% BEV by 2030 and phase out combustion-engined models globally by 2036. By 2030, it planned to offer an electric version of every model it sells, but has recently said it needs to extend the parallel production of combustion-engined models on ‘flexible’ platforms. BMW BMW has trodden one of the most cautious paths on EV growth and said 2021 that it expected “at least” 50% of sales of its global sales to come from EVs by 2030, while cautioning that “the actual figure may vary significantly from market to market”. CEO Oliver Zipse has called for a review on the EU's 2030 CO2 targets, albeit while promising to hit them if they stand.