Diesel sales set to slump due to pollution fears - Autocar investigation

Tom Simpson, the managing director of Simpson Carpenter, said: “Car owners are predicting a major change in their buying behaviour. If they follow through on these intentions, it will give the industry a real headache.”

The survey results are backed by the most recent sales figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers & Traders (SMMT), which showed diesel registrations in May 2017 fell 20% year-on-year. A total of 81,489 diesels were registered in May, compared with more than 101,000 in the same month last year.

According to our survey, the fall in diesel demand will be seen in both the new and used car markets. Of those surveyed who currently drive a used car, 36% run diesels – but just 23% of those intending to buy used next time say they will buy a diesel.

Simpson noted that purchase intentions often differ from actual buying behaviour, and that the relatively limited supply of new and used hybrid and EV cars could be a constraint on any extra demand.

Emissions concerns key to diesel demand slump

When asked which engine types they had entirely rejected for their next car, 30% of motorists said they had ruled out a diesel engine. 

The only engine type to be ruled out by more buyers was electric (32%). Just 15% of motorists said they had rejected hybrid cars.

When those motorists who said they had ruled out buying a diesel engine were asked for their reasons why, a massive 73% cited concerns over higher levels of pollution and emissions, and 41% citing future resale values.

Diesels were also seen as substantially more harmful to the environment than petrol engines, and as emitting the most CO2 and NOx. When asked about specifically about Euro 6-standard cars, 47% of respondents said that diesels were a little or a lot worse for CO2 emissions than petrol engines. Just 18% thought that petrol cars emitted more CO2.

Simpson said the survey results highlighted misunderstanding over the emissions of petrol and diesel-engined cars. “Right now there’s a lot of confusion in the market about diesel cars’ impact on the environment – they’re widely thought of as more harmful to the environment than petrol".

“As well as being seen as worse than petrol for NOx and particulates, they’re wrongly blamed for emitting more CO2 than petrol. The fact that this holds true even for diesel owners’ views about Euro 6 cars shows the extent of this confusion.”

Simpson noted that the high level of concern over diesel resale values – linked to the falling demand for the engine type – could also significantly impact the market.

He added: “Concern about future resale values is very important – and it’s a fear that can affect those who are less concerned about the environment and spread the move away from diesel.”

Motorists still opposed to diesel penalties

Although motorists are moving away from diesel engines, there is still a high level of resistance to introducing measures that penalise diesel owners. 

The survey asked motorists to show their support or opposition for four measures to reduce air pollution: banning older diesels from city centres, higher in-city congestion charges for older diesels, increased tax on diesel fuels and banning all diesels from city centres.

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The only measure that received a majority of support was banning older diesels from city centres, which was backed by 56% of motorists – while being opposed by 44%.

Of those polled, 68% were opposed to banning all diesels from city centres (with 33% in favour), 60% were opposed to increasing tax on diesel fuel and 55% were against higher city congestion charges for older diesels.

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Related to that, when asked to cite the most polluting vehicle types in major city centres, private diesel engines were only ranked fourth, behind delivery vans and trucks, buses and taxis.

Simpson said: “A chink of light is that people blame commercial vehicles, buses and taxis more than diesel cars for the high levels of pollution in city centres, which goes some way to explain the limited support for measures penalising diesel drivers.”

Support for diesel scrappage scheme

The respondents to the survey backed the prospect of a scrappage scheme for owners of older diesel cars, with 74% giving their support for one that encouraged drivers of such cars to trade them in for machines that meet the latest emission standards. 28% opposed or strongly opposed such a scheme.

The introduction of a scrappage scheme limited to people in major urban areas was supported was supported by 57% of motorists, with 63% supporting one for those who replaced an older diesel with an electric car.