Industry analysis: What's next after lockdown?

Daksh Gupta, the boss of major dealership chain Marshall, told Autocar he thought there was “no question” that some form of stimulus package was needed to boost cars sales, but he questioned the effectiveness of a scheme focused purely on EVs, adding that any initiative should benefit all manufacturers.

He said: “Many manufacturers are selling EVs at a loss because of the cost of production, so we are trying to educate [the government] about the benefit of going with hybrid and EVs or even Euro 6.”

How lockdown will impact the emissions debate

While there has already been an increasing push towards cutting carbon emissions, the dramatic reduction in traffic due to the lockdown has given scientists a wealth of data. According to government figures, car usage fell to 35-45% of its usual level, which AA president Edmund King said was “akin to those in the early 1970s”.

A scientific study in Nature magazine found that global CO2 emissions fell by 17% in early April, with surface transport accounting for 43% of that decline.

The authors of the study wrote that the data shows “how responsive the surface transportation sector’s emissions can be to policy changes and economic shifts”, noting that policies to push ‘active travel’ (walking and cycling) “could help to cut back CO2 emissions and air pollution as confinement is eased.”

Several other studies have shown the impact of reduced vehicle traffic on emissions. Using data from a monitor on London’s BT Tower, the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology found emissions fell by an average of 58% between 8am and 8pm during the lockdown. Meanwhile, Transport for London data suggests nitrogen dioxide emissions fell by 27% in the capital during the lockdown.

Gary Fuller, a senior lecturer in Air Pollution Measurement at King’s College London said: “We need to remember these lessons going forward. These successes show that our city’s air pollution is not an intractable problem and that actions can bring results.”

How roads will change for motorists

With social distancing limiting capacity on public transport and fears over the health risks of using it, there is a belief that car usage will rise as the lockdown eases. For instance, surveys in China have shown increasing sales of cars are directly linked to a reluctance to use shared transport. To combat this, the government is keen to encourage ‘active travel’ – and, in turn, discourage car usage.

The Department for Transport introduced a number of initiatives that make it easier to temporarily close roads to cars to create extra pavements and bike lanes. It has also reduced the approval process for those moves to be made permanent, which could lead to significant changes in where cars can be used in future.