Formula 1 2024: Will anyone beat Max Verstappen?

DS: I do wonder whether he will see out this season with Mercedes.

ES: You would like to hope he will after the initial shock has calmed down, but we don’t really know. Team boss Toto Wolff said he only knew a couple of days before the announcement. There will be an effect, but I think he will see out the season. What’s interesting is the dynamic in the team, because it’s a great opportunity – the opportunity – for George Russell. He always saw this as a chance to be Hamilton’s team-mate for a few years, Hamilton to then retire and it to be his team. Now Hamilton is going but Russell has this strange transitional year. It’s a chance for him to assert himself. He’s teetering on the edge of either becoming a great grand prix driver or just a very good one, which is a key difference.

All eyes on Sainz

DS: Hamilton’s decision has also opened up a big seat at Mercedes for 2025. Carlos Sainz Jr will be central to what happens next, because he needs a new drive. Again, it’s a strange situation for Ferrari this year, with the big change for 2025 hanging over the team.

ES: It’s particularly odd for a driver like Sainz, who’s very active off track in the way he works with the team. It’s in his interests to perform as well as he possibly can this season. We don’t know where he’s going to go. He may never get a car as competitive as a Ferrari for all we know. He will need to maximise results, but he’s always been the de facto back-up driver to Charles Leclerc. So I don’t think it changes a huge amount for him in terms of 2024. Except his long-term ambition to usurp Leclerc as number one is off the table. You can’t say Ferrari should have kept Sainz over Hamilton, because of who Hamilton is, but they do lose a lot in letting Sainz go. He’s a very good all-round driver.

DS: Leclerc has just committed himself to a long-term future at Ferrari. It was announced before the Hamilton deal. He must have known this was coming. Like Lewis, he has always been close to team principal Fréd Vasseur. Where will his mind be at?

ES: The big question is whether he knew this was on the cards before he signed his new deal. Either way, he needs to see this as an opportunity. Hamilton is coming into Leclerc’s team, and in F1 terms he’s an old man, even if he’s still operating at a high level. Leclerc will be thinking ‘I can beat him here’. Leclerc can also learn from Hamilton. But for now, both Ferrari drivers have to focus on the task in hand, which is taking on Red Bull.

The rise of McLaren

DS: McLaren went from hopeless at the start of last season to a true force – a remarkable mid-season turnaround. Both Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri made the most of a transformed car. They are a brilliant pairing at different stages of their careers. But I wonder if McLaren is ready to take the next steps, not only to become a race winner but also a championship contender. Norris has committed his future surprisingly early, ruling out a lot of distracting speculation. But Edd, do you believe McLaren is truly back?

ES: It’s on the trajectory that could mean so. It seems perfectly possible that it could win a few races this year. McLaren was the most convincing, behind Red Bull, in showing it understood this set of technical regulations with the changes it made last year. Principal Andrea Stella says the team is still seeing loads of fruitful development. It just needs to make the car easier to drive, less peaky and better in slow corners. McLaren could be the second-strongest team, as it was at times last year. There’s a sense of dynasty building at the team. Probably 2026 is the focus for a championship push, but there is reason for optimism. As for Norris, there are some break clauses in his new contract should the team slump. But there’s no reason why Mercedes or Ferrari are better places to be than McLaren. The new deal was also a means of telling the team ‘I’m still your main guy’ in the wake of Piastri’s impressive first season.

The big wildcard

DS: Aston Martin had an odd season in 2023. It overachieved to start with, then fell away and became inconsistent in its competitive level. The investment that team owner Lawrence Stroll has made in terms of personnel, the factory and the wind tunnel – which will be completed this year – should start to be felt. But it’s hard to judge what we should expect from the team this year. 

ES: It’s probably the hardest one to predict. Aston’s span is second best to being stuck in a midfield battle with Alpine. The big question is whether everything that has been thrown at that team can be pulled together to become self-sustaining. It brought in a lot of ideas from other teams, which can serve you very well, but is it continuing to generate those ideas for itself? Aston did get it together again towards the end of last season. So much is right about the team. But one thing that is up for question is the presence of [Lawrence’s son] Lance Stroll in the second seat beside Fernando Alonso. He’s competent, but he’s not worthy of a drive in a top team. It’s the biggest wildcard on the grid.