ZEV mandate targets slip out of reach for major brands

Car makers including Renault, Volkswagen, Land Rover, Ford and Toyota are falling far behind targets for the UK’s ZEV mandate, which requires 22% of this year’s sales to be of zero-emission models. Those manufacturers ahead of target include Cupra, MG, Subaru, BMW, Volvo and Jeep, while all-electric brands such as Tesla, BYD and Polestar will be looking to earn useful extra income from selling credits to help out the laggards. So far this year, 16.6% of all car sales have been electric, according to new figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, indicating that the industry has its work cut out in the second half of 2024. The penalty for non-compliance is £15,000 per car, although there are ways for those who are falling behind to mitigate that – for example, by selling more plug-in hybrids to outpace their related average CO2 target. The list of those with an EV mix of less than 10% includes Seat, Suzuki and Land Rover on 0% – none currently with an EV in its line-up. The wider Jaguar Land Rover group can lean on Jaguar with its 19.9% share of I-Pace sales, but it has also ramped up sales of Land Rover plug-in hybrids to the point that they now account for 37% of its total six-month numbers. Volkswagen is perhaps the biggest surprise of the year so far, with EVs comprising just 7.9% of its sales. The brand was among the first to come out with a comprehensive EV strategy and offers one of the widest ranges of electric cars, with six models currently available. However, VW’s EV sales have halved this year compared with last year, while demand for its combustion-engined models, such as the Golf, has shot up. VW was the UK’s best-selling brand across the six months. Renault is another surprise, languishing near the bottom at just 7.6% of EV sales in the first half of the year. The French brand was a pioneer of EVs with the Zoe, but its EV sales are currently in a lull while it prepares new models, including the upcoming electric 5 and 4, and ramps up production of the new Scenic. “This year it’s going to be very challenging to reach the target,” Guillaume Sicard, managing director of Renault UK, told journalists during a mid-year briefing. Renault, however, is hopeful that its actual EV sales target will be 18-19% of the total after translating some of its emissions reductions from hybrid sales into the final tally. The scheme allows associated brands to pool together, so Renault will gain from the UK launch of the Dacia Spring later this year. Renault will still fall short, however, requiring it to borrow or ‘mortgage’ against future EV sales – another loophole available to those struggling to stay on target in the first years of the ZEV mandate. “We had only one EV in the first half of 2024,” continued Sicard. “By the end of 2025 we will have seven cars within the Renault Group that are electric. I’m confident we will achieve [the target] over the two years.” Car makers going for the mortgage option to bank on overshooting future targets are confident that falling battery prices and more efficiently designed electric platforms will make EVs more accessible. Either that or they are hoping that, as with California’s ongoing ZEV mandates, the goalposts will shift again before mortgage redemption day. One manufacturer that has publicly criticised the mandate is Stellantis. Earlier this year, CEO Carlos Tavares branded it a “terrible thing for the UK” and warned that it could “kill” the domestic automotive industry. “The natural demand of the market today in the UK for BEVs is half of the mandate,” said Tavares in April. Since then, Stellantis has threatened to pull its van production from the UK if the mandate is not amended – for example, to allow electric van sales to count towards car targets. Stellantis has matched the overall UK EV sales average at 16.7% for its biggest-selling Peugeot and Vauxhall brands after six months, but it is suffering with low Fiat and Citroën EV sales ahead of a wider rollout of electric models for both of those brands. Currently only Jeep is above target in the Stellantis group, and it is actually leading the combustion-engined brands with a 35.6% BEV share. However, the 3756 sales of the Jeep Avenger EV in the first half of the year was still nearly half that of Vauxhall’s 7111 EV sales, meaning the effect will be diluted in the broader Stellantis pool. Also critical of the ZEV mandate is Ford, which has warned it might have to reduce sales of combustion-engined cars to meet the targets. Ford finished near the bottom with just 4% electric car sales in the first six months of 2024, although the second half of the year will see sales of the electric Explorer expand that, along with the related Capri and an electric version of the Puma due later this year. The best performers were largely premium brands. Volvo followed Jeep for the biggest electric share among traditional ICE brands at 30.3%, thanks to the success of the new EX30 SUV, while BMW was next with 27.1%. BMW’s success is partly due to its sheer range of EVs, with nine available – more than its rivals or any other car maker. The i4 was its biggest seller. Also above 20% were Mercedes and Lexus, while the top mainstream players behind Jeep were Subaru at 26.9% and MG at 23.5%. Lexus recently slashed up to £7100 from its lowest-emission models, including plug-in hybrids, in a bid to boost sales and cut emissions. The Japanese brand will help its stablemate Toyota, which is lagging on a 9.8% EV share after the first half of the year. Toyota has previously led an emissions pool with fellow Japanese EV heel-draggers Mazda (5%) and Suzuki (0%). If that continues by dint of Toyota’s part share in its fellow car makers, the pool will need big help going forward. EV-only and premium marques have a distinct advantage The mandate gets tougher next year, rising to 25%, and carries on squeezing out combustion-engined models to the point that, by 2030, 80% of all new sales must be EVs. The debate now for the ruling Labour party is the make-up of the remaining 20%, after it has promised to reinstate the ban on pure combustion-engined new car sales by 2030. The loopholes that allow averages below 22% this year also tighten before shutting altogether in 2027. But there is also a review of the whole programme in 2026, so percentage targets could be softened. Judging by the six-month figures, the call for changes could come much earlier than that.